2007年第5期
EducationPress&Springer-Verlag,Vol.2,pp.234—255.
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AnAlgorithmoftheDesirableAppreciationScaleofRMB:
aCommentonRMBEquilibrium-Exchange-RateStudy
WangXiandCaiGuowei
(LingnanCollegeattheSunYat-senUniversity)
Abstract:AftercommentingontherationaleandfeasibilityofcurrentRMBequilibrium-exchange-rateresearch,thepaperconcludesthatcurrentapproachesfailincalculatingthedesirableappreciationscaleofRMB.Inviewofthis,wedesignanew
algorithmtocalculateexchange-ratemisalignment.Weaimatutilizingefficientlytheinformationembodiedinforwardexchangeratemarketbyapplyingrationalexpectationtechniqueundertheframeworkofequilibrium-exchange-raterevertingmechanism.Anewpricingformulaisthenderivedandempirically,byconstructingtheexternalrealeffectiveexchangerateindexandusingRMBNDFdata,weshowthatRMBshouldbeappreciatedby4.39%bytheendofJunein2005.KeyWords:AppreciationScale;RMB;Algorithm;EquilibriumExchangeRateJELClassification:F310,F320,E580
(责任编辑:王利娜)(校对:晓 鸥)
(上接第26页)
Uribe,Martin,1997,“HabitFormationandtheComovementofPricesandConsumptionduringExchange-rateBasedStabilizationPrograms”,InternationalFinanceDiscussionPapers598.
InternationalTradeandtheRealBusinessCycleofChina
———AComparativeRBCStudyinaClosedvs.anOpenEconomy
LiHao,HuYonggangandMaZhiyao
(FacultyofBusinessatNingboUniversity;ShanghaiUniversityofFinanceandEconomics;XiangtanUniversity)
Abstract:ThisthesisfirstdisplaysthestylizedfactsofChina'smacroeconomicfluctuations:itsconsumptionishighlycorrelatedwithGDP,investmentfluctuatesmorethanoutput,andnetexportiscountercyclical.Itconstructs3RBCmodelsofaclosedeconomy,asmallopeneconomyandasmallopeneconomywithgovernmentsector.Oursimulationresultsfromthesemodelsshowthatthefirstmodelofclosedeconomyexplainsabout48.26%,24.39%and98.50%ofrealfluctuationsinoutput,consumptionandinvestmentrespectively;resultsfromasmallopeneconomyare69.51%,68.70%,98.50%withatrade-balance-to-GDPratioof97.42%;thebestresultscomefromasmallopeneconomywithgovernmentpurchase,theyare83.91%、81.95%、99.63%withatrade-balance-to-GDPratioof209.68%.Overall,open-economymodelperformsbetterthanclosedonesandanopeneconomywithgovernmentpurchaseshockperformsbetterthananopeneconomywithoutit.Theintroductionofgovernmentpurchaseshockintothemodelgreatlyimprovessimulationresults.KeyWords:RealBusinessCycle;SmallOpenEconomy;DynamicGeneralEquilibrium;ProductivityShockJELClassification:E32,F47,D58,E23
(责任编辑:成 言)(校对:晓 鸥)
