水杨酸酯和用来治疗头痛的药物--阿司匹林是同一类化合物。尽管很多食品天然富含水杨酸酯，过去几十年中食品加工公司仍然在食品中加入它来作为防腐剂。这种水杨酸酯在商业上的使用被发现与我们为期20年研究的参加者所报告的头痛发病的平均数量下降是相关的。最近，食品加工公司发现水杨酸酯也可以被用作食品香料。根据这种水杨酸酯的新用途，我们可以预期Mentia居患头痛症的数量将会持续稳步下降。
1.作者没有考虑其他可能过去导致头痛的原因，不一定是缺少Salicylates
2.作者也错误的认为头痛减少是因为事务处理公司把Salicylates用作防腐剂的缘故，可能有别的因素
3.其他因素：调查的具体信息，对象；Salicylates又没有危害
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36.The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist.
"Twenty years ago Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research proves that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture is false, and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid. Because they are using the interview-centered method, my team of graduate students working in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures."
20年前著名人类学家Field博士访问了Tertia岛，并从他的观察得出结论：Tertia的儿童是由整个村庄的人抚养长大的而不是由他们的双亲。然而，我最近对包含Tertia的一组岛屿上生活的儿童的采访显示，这些儿童的谈话中谈到他们双亲的时间要远多于谈到村庄中其他成年人的时间。这个研究证实了Field博士关于Tertia村庄文化的结论是错误的，因而这种以观察为中心的研究文化的方法是无效的。由于我在Tertia工作的研究生们所用的是以采访为中心的方式，他们将对那里以及其他岛屿文化的儿童抚养传统建立精确的多的了解。
1.作者没有提供足够的证据说明Tertia的结论是错误的
2.作者也没有提供足够的信息说明以观察为主的方法是错误的
3.其他因素：没有提供详细的比较观察为主和访问为主的两种方法之间的异同，不能说明他的结论更精确
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37.Woven baskets characterized by a particular distinctive pattern have previously been found only in the immediate vicinity of the prehistoric village of Palea and therefore were believed to have been unique to the Palean people. Recently, however, archaeologists discovered such a "Palean" basket in Lithos, an ancient village across the Brim River from Palea. The Brim River is very deep and broad, and so the ancient Paleans could only have crossed it by boat, but there is no evidence that the Paleans had boats. And boats capable of carrying groups of people and cargo were not developed until thousands of years after the Palean people disappeared. Moreover, Paleans would have had no need to cross the river-the woods around Palea are full of nuts, berries, and small game. It follows that the so-called Palean baskets were not unique to Palea.
一种具有独特花纹的编织篮子以前只在史前村庄Palea的临近地区发现过，因而被认为是Palea 居所独有的。然而最近，考古学家在一个与Palea隔着一条叫做Brim河的村庄Lithos发现了一个这样的Palea篮子。Brim河很深很宽，所以古代Palea人只能坐船穿过它，但没有证据表明Palea人拥有船只。而且能够运载大量人和货物的船只直到Palea人消失几千年后才出现。而且，Palea人应该没有必要穿过这条河流--Palea周围的林地有丰富的果实和小动物。这表明那种所谓的Palea篮子并不是那里所独有的。
1.作者忽略了其他能够导致Palean people过河的因素。可能游泳；或者古代的Brim河没有现在那样深，
2.作者还没有考虑到其他的可能性，导致Palean baskets到达河的另一边，可能是飘过来的
3.其他因素：比如现在河边有的nuts, berries and small game可能在过去没有；或者可能Palean人有船只，只不过后人没有发现证据
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38.The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
我们注意到一种保证可以显著减少学校和工作岗位的缺席的革新疗法。一项研究报告说在附近的East
Meria，鱼的消费量很高，那里的人们每年因为治感冒而去看医生的次数只有一或两次。显然，吃较大量的鱼可以预防感冒。由于感冒是学校和单位缺席的最常见原因，我们建议每天服用Ichthaid，一种从鱼油中提炼的营养物质，作为预防感冒和减少缺席率的有效措施。
1.作者没有提供充足的证据证明吃鱼能故防治感冒，可能East Meria人体好，或者有什么好习惯
2.作者也没有提供充足的证据证明感冒导致了大多数的缺席：有的人可能是装病；或者误以为
感冒
3.其他因素：即便是吃鱼能够防治感冒，也没有证据证明吃从鱼油中提炼出来的Ichthaid也能够防治感冒；此外，Ichthaid是否有其他不好的作用，没有说明
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39.The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Humana College.
"Last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by 50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana College has diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College, we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni."
去年报名参加Omni大学远程教学系统的学生人数上升了50％。同年，Omni用于宿舍和教室的开支比前一年显著下降，很可能是因为远程教学通过互动电脑录像授课。比较而言，在过去三年中，Humana学院的报名人数下降了，而且用于房屋维护的费用上升。因此，为增加报名数量并解决Humana学院财政赤字问题，我们也应该开展并积极推广与Omni一样的远程教学系统。
1.没有证据表明Omni大学的宿舍维护费用减少是因为网络授课的缘故
2.没于信息表明Humana大学和Omni是相类似的
3.其他因素：作者没有考虑是什么原因导致Humana大学维护建筑的费用上升；此外，也没有考虑是否有更好的办法吸引学生报考
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40. The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Excello Food Markets.
"In 90 towns where Excello has food markets, natural-food stores specializing in organic food products—products containing no chemical preservatives and made with foods grown without pesticides—have opened nearby as competitors. Surveys of our own customers reveal a growing concern about foods grown using pesticides or preserved with chemicals. Recently our market in Sun City participated in a local food tasting fair, and 75 percent of the fair goers who visited the Excello booth requested free samples of organic fruit. Such evidence indicates that to increase our profits, we should begin to stock a full line of organic food products in all our markets."
1.作者试图用太阳城有75%的用户要求免费品尝食物，说服我们应该在全国推出有机食品是不科学的
2.作者没有提供信息说明竞争者的信息，可能这些有机食物的竞争者经营情况并不好
3.其他因素：是否能够来来很大的利润；调查说明人们越来越关注有机食物是否全面客观，范围多大
