为提高高速公路的安全性，Prunty County最近把镇上所有主要路段的最高限速从55mph降到了45。但我们应该回复到55mph的限速，因为这种保障安全的努力已经失败了。多数司机都超过了新的限速，而且Prunty County全镇的事故率仅有微量下降。如果我们要提高公路安全性，我们应该采取Butler County在5年前完成的同样的道路改计划：增加车道宽度和重新铺装不平整路面。现在，Butler County的主要道路仍然使用55mph限速，而那里近年间上报的事故发生率比五年前减少了25％。
1、作者没有提供足够的信息说明Prunty County的减速政策失败了：时间太短
2、其次，没有提供足够的证据证明Butler County的政策是成功的：25%的数字不准，即便是少了，不一定是因为拓宽马路和平整路面的结果
3、作者还忽略了其它因素：首先，Butler County的情况是否和Prunty County一样；其次，Butler Country花费在拓宽马路和平整路面上的钱要多少
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19.The following appeared in a letter from the manager of a rock band named Double Rice.
"One year ago, tickets for Double Rice's concerts in stadiums around the country took, on average, at least 24 hours to sell out, if they sold out at all. But the band has been enjoying a surge in nationwide popularity among 14 to 25 year olds, and the 30,000 tickets for a recent concert in Megalopolis sold out in 12 minutes. Clearly the ticket sales in Megalopolis are a result both of the band's increased popularity and of the advertising campaign run in Megalopolis by the Ad Lib advertising agency. Thus, in order to ensure that the band's success in Megalopolis is repeated across the country, the band should hire Ad Lib to duplicate the Megalopolis ad campaign on a nationwide scale."
一年前，Double Rice在全国体育场举行的音乐会门票如果能卖完的话，也平均至少需要24小时。但乐队最近经历了一次14－25岁人群的全国性支持风潮，最近在Megalopolis的一次
音乐会门票在12分钟内就售完了。显然Megalopolis的门票热销得益于乐队日益增加的人气度和由Ad Lib广告公司在Megalopolis所作的广告宣传。因此，为保证乐队在Megalopolis的成能够在全国再现，乐队应雇佣Ad Lib在全国范围内重复他们在Megalopolis所作的广告宣传。
1、作者没有提供足够的证据说明乐队越来越受欢迎，因为去年全国平均的时间是一个小时，可能有的地方长有的地方短，可能去年在Megalopolis卖掉的时间比12分钟还要短
2、作者没有说明Ad Lib的任何信息，可能乐队的受欢迎和他无关
3、作者还忽略了其它因素：作者没有提供全国性的热潮的具体情况，可能只是在个别州的人气有所提升，而在其它的州反而下降了；花费
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20.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
Balmer Island的人口在夏季达到了100000。为减少由助力车和行人引发的事故，Balmer Island 市委应把本岛六个助力车和自行车出租公司的助力车出租数量在夏季从每天50辆限制到每天30辆。通过限制出租数量，市委肯定能够实现助力车事故减少50％的目标，就像去年邻岛Torseau市委实施了类似的对于助力车出租的限制后所达到的那样。
1、作者没有提供足够的证据证明减少出租的数量事故就会减少，人们可能会自己购买自行车
2、作者也没有提供任何临近岛屿的情况，可能和Balmer Island Gazette完全不同
3、作者还忽略了其它因素：比如，考虑其它能够减少事故的因素是否比限制租车数量更好；此外，Torseau去年事故的减少是否是因为限制出租的结果
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21.The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.
"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of
high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."
五年前，当我们在获取可靠的高质量羊毛毛料的渠道方面存在困难的时候，我们停止了高档羊
毛外衣的生产。现在有了新的毛料供应商，我们应该重新开始生产。这种外衣应该卖得很好：因为我们已经五年没有供应羊毛外衣了，而且由于我们的主要竞争对手已不再生产羊毛外衣，消费者将有很迫切的需求。而且，由于过去五年中多数种类的服装价格每年都在上涨，消费者应该愿意花比五年前高的多的价格购买羊毛外衣，从而我们公司的利润将会上升。
1、作者的结果基于没有其它客户生产驼羊毛大衣，这是没有根据的，没有说明真正原因
2、此外，作者没有提供证据证明用户愿意用更昂贵的钱来购买衣服
3、作者没有考虑许多其它因素：比如人们越来越重视动物的保护，因此即便是有钱也不一定会购买驼羊毛的大衣；此外，新的材料供应商购买的价格是多少，如果抬高同样会影响盈利------------------------------
22.The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that builds and sells new homes in Steel City.
"Over the past five years, the population of Steel City has increased by more than 20 percent, and family incomes in Steel City have risen much faster than the national average. Nationwide, sales of houses priced above $150,000 have increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses. Such data indicate that we should make changes in our business to increase company profits. First, we should build fewer low-priced houses than we did last year and focus instead on building houses designed to sell at above $150,000. Second, we should hire additional workers so that we can build a larger total number of houses than we did last year."
过去五年中，Steel City的人口增加超过了20％，家庭收入的上涨比全国平均水平快的多。在全国范围，房价在$150000以上的房产销量的增长比低价房产要多。这些数据显示我们的业务应该进行一些变革来增加利润。首先，我们所建设的低价位房产应该比去年少，而集中力量建设房价在$150000以上的房产。其次，我们应该雇佣更多的工人从而保证我们能够比去年建设更多的房屋。
1、Steel城市的人口增长和收入高并不意味着这里的人愿意购买高价房子
2、此外，全国购买高价房的人增加也不一定意味着Steel城市里的人也愿意购买高价房
3、此外，作者忽略了其他因素：比如，全国高价房的销售量增长比低价房高并不说明目前市场的情况，可能高价房的市场本来就小，而低价房的销量本来很大。还有，Steel城市居民目前所拥有的房子数量和类型
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23.A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable.
最近的销量调查显示Bay City餐馆的海鲜菜肴的消费量比过去五年增加了30％。而现在该市
还没有专门经营海鲜菜的餐厅。而且，Bay City的大多数家庭是双收入家庭，一次国家调查显示这类家庭在家做饭的数量比十年前显著减少，同时他们更关注健康饮食。因此，在Bay City 开设一家新的专营海鲜食品的餐馆将会非常受欢迎而且有利可图。
1.最近的海鲜食品的需求比去年上升30%并不意味着海鲜食物的市场变得很大
2.全国对于双收入家庭的调查并不意味着Bar City同样适用
3.作者同样忽略了其他因素：比如Bar City当地的餐厅数量很多而且对于海鲜食品的供应是否已经足够丰富；或者是否Bar City的居民的饮食习惯
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24.The following appeared in a memo from the president of Viva-Tech, a manufacturer of high-tech medical equipment.
