财务危机预警文献,仅供学习研究
and “long-term investment audited by other auditors” (“other auditor”) have significant power. (2) Macroeconomic factors have incremental usefulness in explaining and predicting bankruptcy. In specific terms, increase currency supply and consumer price index reduce the likelihood of bankruptcy, and increase in interest rate increases the likelihood of bankruptcy. (3) Analyses on electronics industry indicate a lower effect of change in interest rate upon the likelihood of bankruptcy in electronic industry. This is primarily driven by the lower debt ratio of electronic companies. Prediction models’ performance can be improved by making the distinction between electronic companies and non-electronic companies. (4) The discrete-time hazard model, in incorporation with modified auditors’ opinions, macroeconomic factors, and electronic industry factor has the best explanatory power and prediction accuracy. Through development of bankruptcy prediction models for Taiwan public companies, the study aims to understand the usefulness of modified auditors’ opinions, macroeconomic factors, and industry factor in prediction bankruptcy. Our study’s contribution can be summarized as follow. First, the research adds additional evidence to the stream of research confirming the incremental contribution of auditors’ opinions in signaling firms’ inability of survival, by utilizing a recent set of data from Taiwan economy. In addition to going concern opinions, “long-term investment audited by other auditors” (“other auditor”) is also useful for predicting bankruptcy of Taiwan companies. Secondly, the research finds the importance of macroeconomic factors, in particular interest rate, money supply rate, consumer price index in predicting bankruptcy. Thirdly, the research provides better understanding upon bankruptcy in electronics industry, which is a core component of Taiwan economy. Electronics industry is less affected by fluctuations in interest rate due to lower debt ratios. More interestingly, not only do auditors’ opinions, industry factor, and
