财务危机预警文献,仅供学习研究
macroeconomic and electronic industry factors, and vice versa. This indicates that auditors opinions and macroeconomic/industry factors have incremental contribution in explaining bankruptcy beyond each other.
Next, we discuss the comparison of models’ fit based upon Vuong test, results of which are presented in Table 4-4. Panel A indicates that models’ with going concern and “other audit” opinions have significant incremental overall fit beyond the financial-ratio-only model (Model 1). Panel B reports that models’ in incorporation with macroeconomic factors have significantly better fit than financial-ratio-only model; models with both macroeconomic factors and auditors’ opinions have significantly better fit than macroeconomic-factor-only models. Panel C reports that models’ taking into account the electronic industry factor have better fit than models without considering the industry factor. These comparisons suggest that 1. auditors’ opinions, macroeconomic factors, and industry factor have incremental contribution in signaling bankruptcy beyond financial accounting information. 2. auditors’ opinions, macroeconomic factors, and industry factor contain incremental information beyond one another for the purpose of bankruptcy prediction. 4.2. Out-of-sample Prediction Accuracy 4.2.1. Type I and Type II errors
